Thursday, 28 April 2011

The First (and Probably Only) Financial Advice Post

It is no secret to any reader of this blog that I love a certain tech company. I have done for nearly 9 years now. But I've never mentioned the following:

In 2002 (at the age of 14!!! I must be khoja), I was somewhat interested in stocks and shares and stuff. I kept on going on about this, and about Apple to my dad, and he made me an offer, which he thought would be educational. He would allow me to buy £500 worth of Apple shares. I declined then, and for various reasons, it does look like I made the right choice. Except for one thing. In 2002, Apple shares were trading at $15. As of yesterday, they were trading at $350 (LINK). Had I taken the risk, I would be sitting on £11k right now, and my dad's educational offer would probably have ended up teaching me the opposite lesson to the one he wanted me to learn.

I only mention this now, because of one fact that has just hit me. At $350/share, Apple is still cheap. I will say that again: at $350/share, Apple is still cheap (never mind that I can't even afford half a share right now). They have built a monolithic machine that is firing on all cylinders right now, but it has been done so incrementally, so you need to look back at the last 10 years to see all the pieces of the puzzle.

- From as long as the company has existed, there has always been an emphasis on quality hardware. The use of aluminium, glass, stainless steel, and polycarbonate plastics give a superior ergonomic experience to other devices, and an innovation in manufacturing processes in recent years, especially the unibody aluminium frame for the macbook range, has allowed them to produce exceptionally light, yet structurally rigid devices. A transition from IBM chips to Intel chips in 2005/6 allowed them to catch up in terms of computing power, and minimalistically themed designs means their devices *always* look good. Even the little things, like how the power adaptor magnetically attaches and cleanly detaches if it gets caught, or how all the ports are just lined down one side, show that every little detail has had some thought go into it.

- In 2001, they revamped their computer operating system, and have subsequently improved it with six major updates in 7 years. An eighth update is on the way, slated for release this summer. Combined with the hardware side, this sets the gold standard for personal computing. Making your own hardware, operating system, and software is a risky choice, but it has paid off handsomely for Apple. That their computers can run Windows (shudders) if you really, really need to, and are good citizens in Windows dominated environments is a tempting insurance policy for those not yet ready to take the plunge. And it's working. For the past 4-5 years, they have outperformed the PC market, and yet still more than half of their sales come to people who have never used a Mac before.

- In 2001, they branched out from the computer business, and started to make iPods. They went after, and won, the top end of the market, then the mid-range, with the iPod mini and nano, and eventually, the low range, with the shuffle. The companion software, iTunes, has grown over the years to include not only music, but movies both to rent and buy, podcasts, and a huge selection of free video and audio from the world's top universities. Both iPods and iTunes are market leaders in their categories.

- 2007 saw the launch of the iPhone. This was a revolution. Just go back to 2006 and see how "smart" phones at the time handled email, internet, contacts, etc. Subsequent updates and iterations have brought 3G, GPS, an App Store, a best-in-class screen, and built in video-calling that requires absolutely no set-up and configuration. Also a result of engineering the iPhone was the iPod Touch, with pretty much the same features, the same robust OS, iteratively improved, save for the GSM/3G radios and GPS. And a result of the widespread adoption of these? An App Store that developers develop for first, which has had billions of software downloads. The iPod Touch and the App Store are market leaders in their categories, and the iPhone has something like 4% of the market share, but if we look at the segment for high end phones, it is the leader.

In 2010, they released the iPad, and kick-started the tablet market after various high profile failures by other companies. It looks like people really do like using their fingers on a big screen. You know it's a hit when their competitors scramble to release half-ready stuff to the market to compete. Already, within a year, it has made more money for Apple than their traditional mac business.

What am I leaving out? iLife, Apple TV, iWork, MobileMe, how Apple were within a few days of dying in 1996, and a few other things. But if you really want to know, you'll find out ;)

Simply, it comes down to this: Apple has four major hardware sections. The Mac, the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad. And all are doing extraordinarily well. And the company has shown that it's not going to rest on it's laurels. So the exceptional performance will continue.

Soon they will hit $400, 450, 500 per share. Get them now.

Saturday, 9 April 2011

[Fiction] My Most Prized Posession

You will see, that my most prized possession, is not held by me. It is held by her, the only ring to grace her fingers, and the story behind it is magical. She doesn't like to hang on to anything (in fact, she's more generous than I am), but ask for the ring, and she will hesitate, ever so slightly, before taking it off and handing it to you.

It was in our early days. We were going through some financial strife, and looking back on it, I see it as some sort of test that brought us closer together. Anyway, I had somehow scraped a little in secret, and was hoping to pay off a debt early. I headed off to the lender of the debt, feeling quite happy with myself. I didn't have to pay it off then - if we had kept going as we had been, it would have been cleared in a few months anyway. But I was restless, as I kinda am even now, to be out of borrowership, even if in a small way.

Of course, that didn't happen, which is why I'm telling you this story. I stopped outside the door of the lender, and only here did I first feel that maybe I shouldn't be doing this. Unbidden, a memory came to me. As you get older, the details fade, but you remember the emotions. You always remember the emotions.

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I'm home. I'm tired, or some such. I'm also feeling some pain in my heart, though I don't know where it comes from. And she's going on about something, as females do, though for the life of me I don't know what it is. I walk to her, and place a finger gently on her lips.

"Shhhhh. I need you to be my wife. Come sit with me."

And we sit, resting heads on each other. In total silence. And in 15 minutes, I don't know how, but I am healed. And I am grateful to her. And grateful for her.

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I can't. I know she wouldn't mind if I did, but I still can't. It would shame me. So I turn around, and head off to the market, and see if I may find something that I may gift to her. It's about time I did something like that anyway.

The markets were rubbish. I wanted to get her something special, but didn't know what. All I knew was that I would know it when I saw it. Which, I have to admit, annoyed a significant number of the stallholders, a lot of whom had gone through the significant trouble of showing me all that they had to sell, only for me to shake my head at the end. Nothing appealed. No clothing. No homewares. Nothing trinket-y, either.

I had almost given up, when I saw her stall. It was different, but I didn't actually figure out what was unique until I looked again. It was empty. There was just her, a wizened old lady, and a dusty, bare stall. She was looking down, but raised her head, and met my eyes. And I felt like a little boy looking into the eyes of experience itself.

I walked to her stall, and asked her why her stall was empty.
"It's not empty"
"Not empty?"
"No, it's not."
"OK. Lets say I agree. What are you selling then?"
"Exactly what you are looking for."

With a practiced flourish, she brought out a box hidden under the counter, and placed it in front of me. It is made of dark wood, and I see no hinges, so the lid must lift clean out. Curves and straight lines are engraved throughout the box, both lid and bottom, making circles, waves, triangles and various other geometric shapes, which seem to meet in random, yet ordered points of symmetry. It was ornate, and intricate, and it seemed that the contents had to be quite something to come from a box which had itself go so much attention.

"It is in here. I can guarantee it. And I can guarantee something else too."
"Oh? Do tell."
"I can guarantee that she will love it."
She couldn't have known, could she?
"Hmmm. Let's say I believe you. What will it cost me?"
"I will accept every coin on your person"
"What if I have one copper coin?"
"A risk I am willing to accept."
"And if I have nothing worth trading with?
"Then you get it for free. I have laid this same offer before five different people today, and all have declined."
"And if I decline?"
"No pressure on you. In the end, there will be someone who accepts."

I weighed up the risk that the box would have nothing inside, and I decided to take it. If there truly was nothing, then she could consider it a gift, and my search would continue, only now I would have the perfect box. I took out all that I had, which was a tidy sum, and handed it over, praying that I had made the right decision.

"You will not regret this, kind sire. If you have doubts in the future, remember that I consider this more than fair exchange"

I took the box, thanked the lady, and turned around. I opened the box, found that it had a velvet pouch, and inside was a ring. The ring. And already, it was worth orders of magnitude more than I had exchanged it for. I turned to protest that I had paid too little for it, and would want to give her more when I was able, but she was gone. The stall was empty.

I began to make my way home, and examined it in more depth. The style was simple enough, a gold band, with strips of silver bordering it on both sides. But there was a small problem. Three small ones. Where there has been three gemstones, there were now three empty holes. I could only guess that, one by one, they had been taken out and sold, but for whatever reason, they were not enough, so the lady had taken the ring to the market, and got whatever she could for it. Her last words were of little comfort. I looked back, and the stall was gone too.

Outside the house, I debated the best way to give it to her. In the end, I decided the simplest method would be the best. I walked in, and after exchanging greetings, I bring my finger to my lips this time, and take her hand. Her face betrays puzzlement, but she lets me. I then take out the ring, and slide it on her finger, and ask her the question with my eyes. And in her eyes I get the answer I hope for. I explain the whole story then.

"I love it." (The old lady was right, then)
"Really?"
"I do. I love it."
"I wish the ring were more complete."
She smiled. "Don't worry about it. I love it as it is. But I know what you are like. So complete it, over the coming years. No need to hurry. In a way, it could be seen as a metaphor for us..."
"How so?"
She grinned. "Work in progress."

And she was right. Over the years, one by one, the gaps were filled. Ever so often, I went to a jeweller I knew, and asked to see if he had any suitable loose gems, but rarely were they what I was looking for. The cut was wrong, or the finish, or just the way it it caught the light. But we stumbled upon perfect specimens at remarkably synchronistic times. I was able to put a turquoise on one end soon after the birth of our first child. An emerald went on the other end when our house was fully paid off - we were finally debt free. And I completed the ring with a ruby a few weeks before our 25th anniversary.

I went back to the same place in the market over and over again. I never saw her, and none of the regular traders recall anyone like her. I keep on thinking it was a dream, that I must have imagined it, but the ring is there, on her finger, as real as can be.

Odd.

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This is a fusion of two different stories I tried to work on. I am not sure the fusion works, but I am sure beyond doubt that this is better than the two stories individually.

Enjoy - it's been a while since I wrote a long fiction.